Conservatives in the Local Elections 2024
In what will be the last major test of party popularity before the General Election, almost 2,600 councillors, London Assembly members, the Mayor of London and the 9 Combined Authority Mayors will be up for election on 2nd May.
With the exception of an unforeseen turn of events at the polls, next month’s council and mayoral elections are anticipated to deliver further disappointment for Prime Minister Sunak. Polls indicate May’s results are likely to be disastrous with the Tories set to lose around 500 seats.
In the 2021 elections, when the same seats were up for election, the Conservatives were polling 40% nationally; also benefiting from a surge in public confidence following the successful rollout of Covid vaccines under Boris Johnson. Conservatives are now polling 23%.
Here are a few key councils where the Conservatives will be focusing attention:
South East and West Midlands
Cherwell is currently governed by a minority Conservative administration following a loss of majority in the May 2023 Local Elections. Despite a failure in negotiations between the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Labour to form a coalition last year, there is a possibility of more successful collaboration this year which may result in long standing Conservative leader Cllr Barry Wood’s removal from office.
In the West Midlands, the battleground is heating up in a handful of districts such as Redditch, where, mirroring the 2023 voting pattern, the scales could tip in favour of Labour, marking a significant shift, where Labour could seize control for the first time in two decades.
South of London
Reigate and Banstead may be where the Conservatives could find a rare victory as, though currently under no overall control, no other party stands out as a clear challenger to the Conservative minority administration. Conservatives could claw back their majority and Reigate and Banstead could stand as a small beacon of hope for the party.
Essex
In Brentwood, the Liberal Democrats are gearing up for a showdown with the Conservatives, eyeing a chance to gain majority control for the first time since 2003. Neighbouring Basildon has been a stronghold for the Conservatives, who against the prevailing wind held onto their majority last year. They will hope to maintain that majority this year.
Mayoral Elections
At the London Mayoral Elections, Sadiq Khan is aiming to secure another term as Mayor as he strives to make history by winning a third consecutive term at City Hall.
The Tories in London may not be expected to win, but Conservative opponent Susan Hall is seeking to eat into Sadiq Khan’s lead through emphasis on crime figures and vows to reverse expansion of the capital’s ultra-low emissions zone.
