Last week Electoral Calculus released their latest polling results based on a General Election today, which will make sombre reading for PM Sunak.
Current predictions give Labour a majority of 236 seats in a new House of Commons.
A comparison between the composition of the current House of Commons and the Electoral Calculus predicted result if a General Election were held today is below:
- Con 2019: 365 seats; 2024: 133 seats
- Lab 2019: 203 seats; 2024: 443 seats
- LibDem 2019: 11 seats; 2024: 30 seats
- SNP 2019: 48 seats; 2024: 21 seats
Labour has now held a double-digit % lead over the Conservatives for the last year and, with no post party conference season bounce, it is difficult to see how the Conservatives can narrow the yawning polling gap, barring some serious mistakes in the Labour campaign!
How does this impact you? If you are bringing a scheme through planning now or in early 2024, there will likely be an election before you finish the process, either in spring or autumn 2024, with our own sources pointing to an autumn election.
It is worth considering how a change of government could help you. Labour has not shied away from its pro-development stance so consider whether your scheme may stand a better chance at committee/appeal after Labour’s proposed re consideration of poor-quality Green Belt to Grey Belt; and a pro development stance in central Government permeating down through the planning system.
As with everything in politics, nothing is set in stone but 2024 will be election year and, unless something unforeseeable happens, you will be seeing a change of Government by the end of 2024.