Plumber, plasterer and dog lover Cllr Hannah Spencer of the Green Party has secured a decisive victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, with 40.7% of the vote. The result sees Hannah’s election as the party’s fifth MP and marks the Greens’ first ever parliamentary by-election win. Despite widespread anticipation of a tight three-way contest, Reform UK’s vote share increased from 14.1% in the 2024 General election to 28.7%, whereas Labour’s vote dropped from 50.8% to 25.4%, leaving a wide margin between the Greens and the runners-up.
The loss of a previously safe seat to the Greens places renewed pressure on Labour and calls into question the efficacy of the government’s previous strategy, spearheaded by former Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney, to appeal to Reform-leaning voters. The result is indicative of an increasingly competitive political landscape, with the Conservative candidate receiving only 706 votes and subsequently losing her deposit.
The election sets a precedent that the Greens can outflank Labour in urban areas, undermining Kier Starmer’s narrative that Labour are the only bulwark against Reform. With the Greens already second place in 39 Labour parliamentary seats, the implications are significant. The upcoming election of 1,817 council seats in all 32 London boroughs in May will serve as a test for both the Green Party’s appeal and Labour’s resilience.
While the by-election will be viewed as an historic achievement for the Greens, the result raises questions about Reform UK’s ability to convert polling numbers into MPs. Despite the unveiling of Farage’s “shadow cabinet” and a string of recent defections, the by-election results underscore the success of tactical voting to obstruct Reform’s advances. With recent polls signalling a slight decline in support for Reform, broadening its electoral appeal beyond a limited cohort will constitute a key challenge in the May elections.
